Exceptional Trump Handling for Hungary: The Implications for the Upcoming Polls

In the course of the 2016 US presidential election campaign, Viktor Orbán stood out as the only European Union leader to support Donald Trump. This backing was hardly surprising, considering the Hungarian leader's championing of controversial ideas like great replacement ideology and the suppression of journalistic liberties. Observers have noted that Mr Orbán practically pioneered Trump's base, with ex-Trump adviser Steve Bannon lauding Orbán as a precursor to Trump.

Electoral Support In advance of Hungarian Elections

Recently, with key votes in Hungary just approaching in six months, Donald Trump offered electoral assistance. With Orbán aims for a fifth consecutive term leading a country he describes as an illiberal democracy, his ruling party is behind in the polls. A visit to Washington yielded beyond some autographed Trump merchandise; it obtained considerably more valuable campaign boosts.

Waivers and Financial Shields

Although earlier admonishing European nations on the imperative to stop all energy imports from Russia, and threatening sanctions against states continuing to buy Russian oil, Donald Trump consented to grant a unique waiver for Hungary – the top consumer among EU members of Russian petroleum. According to Mr Orbán, the Trump administration also pledged to provide a “financial shield” to the Hungarian authorities should it faces any later issues, given that EU institutions persists in holding back substantial EU funds to Hungary on grounds of failures to uphold the rule of law.

The details of this agreement are vague. Yet Mr Trump recently demonstrated his inclination to assist ideological allies after the US provided a $20bn emergency credit line to Argentina’s far-right president, the South American leader. Even though Orbán failed to obtain a campaign-energising Trump visit to the Hungarian capital, the discussions nevertheless turned out to be a productive session.

Brussels' Worries and Geopolitical Stakes

In the corridors of the EU, Mr Trump’s intervention likely further underlined the geopolitical stakes of the forthcoming polls, before which the moderate contender, Péter Magyar, has a comfortable lead in the polls. EU chiefs know not to expect principled consistency from the Trump White House, and are familiar with the American leader's efforts to belittle the European Union. But Mr Orbán’s exemption – which came at the price of an pledge to purchase American energy resources – flagrantly undermines EU aspirations to phase out imports of Russian energy by the year 2027.

• From 2022 onward, the top importers in the EU of Russian crude, Hungary and Slovakia, have provided well over £10bn to the Kremlin’s war effort.
• Meanwhile, the Hungarian government has repeatedly used the threat of its veto to impede moves in Ukraine’s EU accession talks.
• As Europe strives to create a coordinated approach for aiding the Ukrainian government, and strengthening its hand in any future peace negotiations, the Hungarian leader's alignment with Moscow at the international forums is still a key barrier.

Rival's Approach

The opposition candidate has refrained from pledging a significant change on Ukraine, and centered his campaign on domestic issues, while stressing the necessity for the country to begin operating as a constructive EU member. After enduring so many years of trolling, the European Union can only remain patient. Orbán's disregard to basic EU values, such as the support for minority protections and the independence of civil society institutions, has persisted as a humiliating embarrassment for the European Union. His continued obstructionism toward Ukrainian matters risks undermining its security prospects.